The Accomplishment of the First of Mr. Bickerstaff's Predictions
BEING AN ACCOUNT OF THE DEATH OF MR. PARTRIDGE
THE ALMANACK-MAKER, UPON THE 29TH INSTANT.
IN A LETTER TO A PERSON OF HONOUR; WRITTEN IN THE YEAR 1708.
MY LORD, - In obedience to your lordship's commands, as well as to
satisfy my own curiosity, I have for some days past inquired
constantly after Partridge the almanack-maker, of whom it was
foretold in Mr. Bickerstaff's predictions, published about a month
ago, that he should die the 29th instant, about eleven at night, of
a raging fever. I had some sort of knowledge of him when I was
employed in the Revenue, because he used every year to present me
with his almanack, as he did other gentlemen, upon the score of
some little gratuity we gave him. I saw him accidentally once or
twice about ten days before he died, and observed he began very
much to droop and languish, though I hear his friends did not seem
to apprehend him in any danger. About two or three days ago he
grew ill, was confined first to his chamber, and in a few hours
after to his bed, where Dr. Case and Mrs. Kirleus were sent for, to
visit and to prescribe to him. Upon this intelligence I sent
thrice every day one servant or other to inquire after his health;
and yesterday, about four in the afternoon, word was brought me
that he was past hopes; upon which, I prevailed with myself to go
and see him, partly out of commiseration, and I confess, partly out
of curiosity. He knew me very well, seemed surprised at my
condescension, and made me compliments upon it as well as he could
in the condition he was. The people about him said he had been for
some time delirious; but when I saw him, he had his understanding
as well as ever I knew, and spoke strong and hearty, without any
seeming uneasiness or constraint. After I had told him how sorry I
was to see him in those melancholy circumstances, and said some
other civilities suitable to the occasion, I desired him to tell me
freely and ingenuously, whether the predictions Mr. Bickerstaff had
published relating to his death had not too much affected and
worked on his imagination. He confessed he had often had it in his
head, but never with much apprehension, till about a fortnight
before; since which time it had the perpetual possession of his
mind and thoughts, and he did verily believe was the true natural
cause of his present distemper: "For," said he, "I am thoroughly
persuaded, and I think I have very good reasons, that Mr.
Bickerstaff spoke altogether by guess, and knew no more what will
happen this year than I did myself." I told him his discourse
surprised me, and I would be glad he were in a state of health to
be able to tell me what reason he had to be convinced of Mr.
Bickerstaff's ignorance. He replied, "I am a poor, ignorant
follow, bred to a mean trade, yet I have sense enough to know that
all pretences of foretelling by astrology are deceits, for this
manifest reason, because the wise and the learned, who can only
know whether there be any truth in this science, do all unanimously
agree to laugh at and despise it; and none but the poor ignorant
vulgar give it any credit, and that only upon the word of such
silly wretches as I and my fellows, who can hardly write or read."
I then asked him why he had not calculated his own nativity, to see
whether it agreed with Bickerstaff's prediction, at which he shook
his head and said, "Oh, sir, this is no time for jesting, but for
repenting those fooleries, as I do now from the very bottom of my
heart." "By what I can gather from you," said I, "the observations
and predictions you printed with your almanacks were mere
impositions on the people." He replied, "If it were otherwise I
should have the less to answer for. We have a common form for all
those things; as to foretelling the weather, we never meddle with
that, but leave it to the printer, who takes it out of any old
almanack as he thinks fit; the rest was my own invention, to make
my almanack sell, having a wife to maintain, and no other way to
get my bread; for mending old shoes is a poor livelihood; and,"
added he, sighing, "I wish I may not have done more mischief by my
physic than my astrology; though I had some good receipts from my
grandmother, and my own compositions were such as I thought could
at least do no hurt."
I had some other discourse with him, which now I cannot call to
mind; and I fear I have already tired your lordship. I shall only
add one circumstance, that on his death-bed he declared himself a
Nonconformist, and had a fanatic preacher to be his spiritual
guide. After half an hour's conversation I took my leave, being
half stifled by the closeness of the room. I imagined he could not
hold out long, and therefore withdrew to a little coffee-house hard
by, leaving a servant at the house with orders to come immediately
and tell me, as nearly as he could, the minute when Partridge
should expire, which was not above two hours after, when, looking
upon my watch, I found it to be above five minutes after seven; by
which it is clear that Mr. Bickerstaff was mistaken almost four
hours in his calculation. In the other circumstances he was exact
enough. But, whether he has not been the cause of this poor man's
death, as well as the predictor, may be very reasonably disputed.
However, it must be confessed the matter is odd enough, whether we
should endeavour to account for it by chance, or the effect of
imagination. For my own part, though I believe no man has less
faith in these matters, yet I shall wait with some impatience, and
not without some expectation, the fulfilling of Mr. Bickerstaff's
second prediction, that the Cardinal do Noailles is to die upon the
4th of April, and if that should be verified as exactly as this of
poor Partridge, I must own I should be wholly surprised, and at a
loss, and should infallibly expect the accomplishment of all the
rest.
-THE END-
Jonathan Swift: The Accomplishment of the First of Mr. Bickerstaff's Predictions
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